Friday, May 6, 2016

The pick-pockets of the financial world


The fund manager in the financial world plays the same role as a bookmaker in the gambling world. That is, the objective of both is to put themselves in a no lose situation while the client takes all the risk. People usually understand this intuitively when it comes to bookmakers, but have more trouble understanding that fund managers operate in exactly the same way.

A fund manager once told me: “It’s the best business in the world, at the end of the month we transfer our management fee from the client’s account to ours, it doesn’t matter what our performance was like and we don’t even have to send out an invoice and await payment.”

Being a fund manager is actually much easier than being a bookmaker because bookmakers have to be able to set the odds very accurately and also manage their book carefully in order to try and balance it. This takes real skill.

A fund manager needs none of these skills. He just needs to take money, invest it to more or less mirror an index and then sit back and take a fee. If he outperforms the market it was because he has superior stock picking skills, if he loses money, it’s because the global economy was weak. With only a handful of staff, he can manage huge amounts of money and his remuneration will be the stuff of dreams for 99.9% of the population.

With this is mind, below is a list of characters that one will frequently come across in the financial world, trust them to your detriment!

1.    The P.T. Barnum fund manager (one who indulges in legalised theft): A fund manager who has had a plethora of previous positions (incarnations), none of which was successful but due to outrageous fee structures they were able to walk out of each “incarnation” with millions of dollars, while their investors walked out with poor performance or nothing at all! This character relies on investors not doing their due diligence (this can almost always be relied upon). After one failed “incarnation”, our man will reappear with a differently named vehicle which will enrich him further at the expense of the investors, this cycle will continue ad infinitum. P.T. Barnum once quipped: “No one ever went broke under-estimating the stupidity of the public.”

 
2.    The up and comers (get rich, or kill your clients trying): A young guy (or guys) who have had a few years working in an investment bank or for some prominent fund manager who now deem themselves suitably qualified to manage hundreds of millions of dollars. The end game of course is to make sure that they end up living in mansions and driving Ferraris care of “management fees” which are transferred from the client’s bank account to theirs regardless of performance. Sometimes they will be profiled in a prominent publication which will add a veneer of credibility to people to whom such credibility should be withheld pending much longer performance results.

 
3.    The Buffett acolyte (Buffett says this, Buffett says that, Buffett drinks Coke): We have all seen plenty of these. The fund manager who espouses everything Buffett, but whose performance is vastly inferior to Buffett. They have become multi-millionaires not because of their investing prowess, but due to the absolute stupidity of those who entrusted them with their money. Please understand people that the only way you can get Buffet-like returns is by investing with Buffett! Makes sense doesn’t it?

 
4.    The Publicity Whore (the media gave me false credibility): This is the guy you see in the media all the time. He knows nothing, but he looks and sounds convincing on camera or on radio. He should never (ever) be trusted with your money.

 
5.    The Newsletter Writer (those who can do, those who can’t write): As they say in the betting world, a successful bettor can either bet his own picks or sell his picks to someone else, however, an unsuccessful bettor can only sell his picks to someone else (i.e to a patsy). Newsletter writers are 100% in the latter category, end of story. It’s astonishing to me that thousands of people cannot understand this. Please don’t be their patsy.

 
6.    The One-Trick Pony (king for a day, fool for a life-time): This is the guy who made one accurate call during his entire career which attracted a lot of publicity, he’s never made a correct call since, but he must be a genius because he made that one correct call. Also known as “Polish clock guy”, based on the old Polish saying: Even a clock that is broken is correct twice a day.

 
7.    What all of the above need to thrive: Lots of dumb money from people who have abrogated responsibility for their financial future.

One of my great friends who was a fabulous intuitive trader (who sadly is no longer with us, but made millions during his life), once remarked about a person we both knew: “The guy is a genius, he must have an IQ of 150, but when it comes to money, his IQ is closer to 90”. All of the above characters rely on those sorts of people.